APG’s 2026 Pistachio season update across California

As the 2026 pistachio growing season progresses, several early trends are emerging across California. While it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, winter conditions, elevated early-season temperatures and water availability are already influencing crop development and management decisions.

Snowpack accumulation in the Sierra Nevada reached near-average levels at peak, and reservoir inflows improved through late winter and early spring. However, January temperatures were unseasonably warm, followed by one of the warmest March periods on record.

The heat accelerated snowmelt significantly, reducing the gradual runoff pattern typically relied upon later in the irrigation season. By the time final seasonal assessments were completed, snowpack levels in many monitoring locations had dropped to minimal or undetectable levels.

From a water management perspective, the timing of those inflows matters. Early snowmelt reduces the ability to capture, store and manage water for agricultural use later in the season. While reservoirs received increased inflows, systems missed opportunities for sustained runoff that would support deliveries deeper into the growing season.

Both State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) allocations remain limited, leaving many growers to operate with restricted surface water supplies while also managing groundwater use under Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) limitations. In regions facing severe water constraints, maximizing return per unit of water applied has become increasingly important, particularly in pistachios, where irrigation timing directly affects yield and quality.

Bloom conditions create additional uncertainty

Winter chill accumulation appears to have been adequate across most pistachio-growing regions, providing a generally favorable foundation for bloom development and yield potential. Aside from some high-elevation and lower-chill areas, orchards entered the season in relatively good condition, with strong fruit wood development and normal early phenological progression.

However, bloom conditions introduced additional uncertainty. Sustained temperatures of 90° F or higher during bloom were observed across much of the state. Elevated temperatures during this stage can reduce pollination efficiency, pollen viability and pollen tube formation, ultimately affecting early nut development.

The full impact remains unclear. Some orchards appear to have achieved acceptable set, although kernel fill will determine final productivity. Other orchards, particularly in portions of the southern San Joaquin Valley, are showing signs of lighter production potential, including aborted nutlets and dried rachis tissue.

One recurring observation this season has been the importance of early irrigation management. Growers who entered bloom with full soil moisture profiles and stayed ahead of irrigation timing generally appear to be in a stronger position than orchards delayed in receiving water.

Accelerated pest pressure compresses timelines

Higher-than-average temperatures since Jan. 1 have accelerated both crop development and insect activity. Trees progressed rapidly through early growth stages, while pest development followed a similar pattern.

First flight activity for navel orangeworm arrived nearly a month ahead of normal in some areas, while plant bug activity also appeared earlier than typical. Those shifts have influenced pest management decisions in almonds and pistachios alike.

Intermittent spring rains also affected fungicide treatment timing, further compressing management windows and increasing the importance of precision in monitoring and applications.

The implications are both agronomic and economic. Earlier pest pressure can increase input costs and operational complexity. Under these conditions, accurately timing interventions through degree-day modeling, disease modeling, field scouting and decision-support systems becomes increasingly valuable.

Water management remains critical

Despite these early observations, pistachio production remains highly dependent on conditions later in the season. Variability across orchards is expected, and early season trends do not always correlate with final outcomes.

Stage 3 kernel fill will be a particularly important period. Water availability and irrigation management during this phase directly influence final yield, nut quality and next year’s crop potential. With limited water supplies and accelerated runoff patterns, timely irrigation management will remain essential.

There are still reasons for cautious optimism. Winter conditions provided adequate chill accumulation and improved reservoir levels compared to recent seasons, and some orchards continue to progress well. However, variability in bloom conditions, accelerated crop development and ongoing water limitations continue to introduce uncertainty into the season outlook.

As the season progresses, management decisions surrounding water-use efficiency, input timing, advanced analytics and economic return evaluation may play an increasingly important role in determining outcomes for California pistachio growers. 

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FAQ

What is influencing the 2026 pistachio season?

Winter conditions, elevated temperatures and water availability are shaping crop development.

Why is water management important this year?

Limited SWP and CVP allocations and SGMA restrictions are increasing pressure on growers to maximize irrigation efficiency.

How did bloom conditions affect orchards?

High temperatures during bloom may have reduced pollination efficiency and early nut development.

What pest concerns are emerging in 2026?

Navel orangeworm and plant bug activity appeared earlier than typical in some regions.

Is it too early to predict final yields?

Yes. The article notes that kernel fill and later-season conditions will determine final productivity.

Joe Coelho is the director of sustainability and member outreach for American Pistachio Growers (APG). APG is a nonprofit trade association representing over 830 grower members in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. For a deeper dive into this topic, you can reach Coelho at jcoelho@americanpistachios.org.