August 2025 almond position report: shipments down, exports steady

The Almond Board of California released its August 2025 almond position report on Sept. 11, marking the first supply and shipment figures for the new crop year.

Inventory adjustments

The industry entered 2025-26 with a restated carry-in inventory of 483.8 million pounds. The adjustment reflects a higher-than-expected Loss & Exempt (L&E) figure of 3.14%, compared to the 2% forecast, which lowered the inventory by about 31 million pounds. The five-year average L&E is 2.12%.

A voluntary handler survey covering 67% of the 2024-25 handle found that 92.4% of inventory was edible. Applying that rate across the carry-in equates to an estimated 447 million pounds of edible inventory.

Shipments and demand trends

Crop receipts through August reached 259 million pounds, down 10.7% from the same period a year ago. Total supply stood at 737.7 million pounds, a 6.3% decline year-over-year.

Shipments for the month totaled 157.8 million pounds, a 6.2% decrease from last August. Domestic shipments were down sharply at 48.4 million pounds, a 21.9% drop, while exports rose nearly 3% to 109.4 million pounds.

By region, Mexico posted a 35% gain over last year, while India declined 41%. Western Europe rose 10%, with strong movement to Spain, France and Italy. Southeast Asia shipments were up 2%.

As of Aug. 31, commitments — sold but not yet shipped — totaled 526.7 million pounds, down 13.3% from a year ago. Domestic commitments were off 7.1%, and export commitments fell 16%. Uncommitted inventory stood at 11.1 million pounds, up significantly from 53.2 million pounds the previous August.

Quality control reports showed an overall inedible rate of 2.39% across major varieties. Independence and Nonpareil led receipts for the month, with Nonpareil representing 67% of the total.

The August 2025 almond position report reflects a new crop year beginning with lower supply, higher inedibles and softer domestic demand.