Blue Diamond projects 2026 California almond crop over 2.6B pounds

Blue Diamond Growers estimates California’s 2026 almond crop will total about 2.69 billion pounds, with production expected to range from 2.675 billion to 2.72 billion pounds based on current orchard conditions and grower data.

The cooperative said the forecast reflects orchard comparisons, grower surveys, field observations across more than 12,000 miles of orchards and acreage trend data collected throughout California’s almond-producing regions. Blue Diamond represents nearly 3,000 growers statewide.

The estimate comes as growers continue to face economic and environmental pressures affecting yield potential. Blue Diamond said almond returns were below $2 per pound in four of the past five years, leading some growers to reduce pest management and nutrition programs or abandon orchards altogether.

Input costs also continue to rise. Fuel prices are estimated to be up 50%, fertilizer costs increased about 30% from last year and energy costs tied to groundwater pumping continue to climb, according to the report.

Land IQ estimates California will have 1.39 million bearing almond acres in 2026 after accounting for projected orchard removals, marking the first decline in bearing acreage since 1995.

Water availability remains another major factor. Blue Diamond said state and federal water allocations remain low despite reservoirs sitting above historical averages, while weak snowpack could further limit runoff during the season.

Bloom weather also affected crop development. The report cited low chilling hours, high bloom temperatures and storm conditions that reduced bee activity during pollination. Some regions experienced storm and hail damage, though impacts varied across the Central Valley.

Blue Diamond said it plans to update the forecast in future market and crop reports as harvest approaches.