Aug 17, 2023Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – August 15, 2023
In the Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – Aug. 15, 2023, Laura Gerhard, vice president for Blue Diamond Almonds, shared that “shipments for the month of July exceeded industry expectations at 186.7 million pounds. This was even to last month and 10% higher to last year.”
Domestic shipments registered 56.5 million pounds, down 7% to last month and 1% to last year.
Exports were 130.1 million pounds, which is up 3.5% to last month and 16% to last year.
The July position report’s stronger-than-expected shipments provided for a positive finish to the season holding carryout below 800 million pounds.
In a market perspective, Gerhard reported “the July position report concludes the 2022 crop year on a positive note by exceeding industry expectations with a higher shipment figure. With that, the industry accomplishes a carryout below 800 million pounds. This provides a step in the right direction to managing the oversupply situation California finds itself in.”
Almond price softened in the weeks following July’s Objective Estimate on increased offer from California packers along with quiet demand. “Now that the carryover has been set, the supply situation becomes clearer, which should improve price discovery. Global markets remain largely uncovered as we head into the 2023 crop season. This has the potential to provide some much-needed price stability as buyers begin to cover their Q1 needs,” Gerhard wrote.
Harvest has arrived with growers in the southern regions of the valley starting to shake trees. The outlook for the 2023 crop will become clearer over the coming weeks as receipts are evaluated for quality, size, and supply potential, Gerhard wrote.
“In total, the 2022 crop year closes out with shipments of 2.56 billion pounds which is down 2.6% to last crop year. Domestic shipments finished at 716.4 million pounds, down 6% to last year and export shipments finished at 1.85 billion pounds, down 1% to last year,” Gerhard said.
The report also addressed shipments to India and China that have declined for the month. The Indian market finished the 2022 crop season down 6% compared to the prior year, while
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam’s July shipments were recorded at 7.4 million pounds, down 30% compared to last year.
Europe, however, saw an increase of 21% in shipments for July versus last season, but ended the 2022 season down 8% overall.
July shipments to the Middle East were down 18% versus last year. This was largely expected as the market has been sitting on strong inventories for much of the last quarter of the crop season, Gerhard wrote.
On the domestic side, July shipments were relatively flat year-over-year. As the season ends, the U.S. market trails last year’s shipment performance by 6.6%. Consumption and consumer buying decisions in the U.S. have been impacted by price increases over the last 12 months. Retailers and Consumer Packaged Goods companies have right-sized inventory positions to optimize warehouses due to an increase in interest rates and improvements in just-in-time logistics, Gerhard wrote.
Total commitments for the year ended at 373 million pounds, up 7% to last year. Uncommitted inventory improved to 419 million pounds and is down 14% to last year. New sales for the current crop year were respectable at 108.6 million pounds, which is 71.5% higher than last year. A good portion of this was comprised of export sales. California ends the crop year at 87.5% sold and shipped against total supply, compared to 85.9% last season, Gerhard wrote.
Read the full report here.