Jul 18, 2023Blue Diamond Almonds provides market update
Blue Diamond provided its Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – July 17, 2023, which indicated that the 187 million pounds of May shipments were in “the low end of industry expectations.”
Blue Diamond Growers’ Laura Gerhard, vice president for Blue Diamond, reported that the 187 million pounds was down 33% compared to last year’s record month and marks the smallest month of shipments for the crop year. “This was expected as buyers and sellers alike have limited their activities in anticipation of the Objective Estimate,” Gerhard said in a news release.
Export shipments accounted for the shortfall at 126 million pounds, down 41% to last year. Domestic shipments rebounded from recent months, reporting 61 million pounds for the month, up 11% to last month and down 5% to last year. This marks the third consecutive month of declining shipments which are now down 3.5% year-to-date after outpacing last season in recent months.
Shipments to the Indian market were 15.5 million pounds for the month, down 61% to last June. Overall, this market is down 10% for the crop year. This is the fourth consecutive month shipments into the market were less than 1,000 containers, indicating tight local supply heading into the new crop season.
For China, June shipments to the region were 11.5 million pounds, up 5% to last year. Year-to-date shipments were 13% ahead of last year’s pace.
Shipments to Europe continued to lag last season coming in at 48 million pounds, down 41% versus last June’s record month. This market is down 10% for the crop season. The lighter shipments in the last quarter were expected as Europe experiences a shift back to more normal shipping patterns.
Middle East: Shipments to the region were 12.8 million pounds, down 62% to last year. This is not entirely surprising given the heavier shipments earlier in the crop year.
The US market remains down 7% year-to-date. Consumption continues to be challenged across most channels and categories as continued inflationary pressures and high food prices affect consumer spending habits.
The much-anticipated USDA Objective Estimate was released on July 12, forecasting 2.6 billion pounds for the 2023 crop. The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. This is up from the May Subjective Estimate of 2.5 billion pounds. This comes as a surprise to many in the industry who were expecting the Objective Estimate to fall in the 2.4 to 2.5 billion pound range, according to the release.
With one shipping month remaining in the 2022 crop year, it is likely the carryout comes in under 800 million pounds. This is down from last year’s 837 million pound record carryout. With the updated forecast of 2.6 billion pounds, this puts the projected total supply for the 2023 crop year around 3.4 billion pounds. This would be on par compared to the current crop year.
Read the full Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – July 17 here.