California almond yields fall short of expectations as growers face rising costs
California’s 2026 almond crop is estimated at 2.59 billion pounds as smaller kernels, uneven yields and rising costs affect growers, Blue Diamond reports.
The 2026 California almond harvest was largely complete by early November, with crop production estimated at 2.56 billion to 2.62 billion pounds, according to the Nov. 2 Blue Diamond Growers Crop Progress Report written by Mel Machado.
The report placed the midpoint estimate at 2.59 billion pounds, citing smaller kernel sizes across varieties, lower moisture content compared to 2025 and weaker-than-expected yields from several pollinizer varieties.
An early harvest start, reduced crop volume, favorable weather and compressed crop maturity contributed to a faster harvest season. Some growers were still harvesting late-maturing Monterey and Fritz varieties, while localized thunderstorms delayed remaining field operations.
Yields varied by region, with Nonpareil performing below expectations and Independence showing stronger results. Pollinizer yields were particularly affected by weaker production in Butte/Padre and California varieties.
Although overall reject levels were among the lowest in several years, Machado reported continued brown spot damage from plant bugs in Independence almonds. Navel orangeworm damage also increased in susceptible varieties during the third flight of the pest.
With harvest nearly finished, growers shifted their attention to postharvest orchard management, including irrigation, fertilizer applications, pruning and cover crop planting. Orchard sanitation to reduce overwintering navel orangeworm populations was expected to begin following the arrival of winter rains.
Financial pressures remained a concern. Despite firming market prices, rising input costs, including diesel, and lower-than-anticipated yields continued to affect grower profitability.
Most huller/sheller operations expected to finish before Thanksgiving, while larger facilities anticipated completing work by mid-December.
Blue Diamond Growers’ next Crop Progress Report is scheduled for approximately Feb. 8, 2027, ahead of the 2027 almond bloom.
Photo courtesy of KC Clendenin and Mel Machado.