November almond position report shows slower shipments, steady supply picture

The Almond Board of California’s November position report shows overall shipments trending below last year while receipts continue to move harvest toward the finish line, setting up a large but manageable supply picture heading into winter.

Supply picture

According to the November position report, handlers reported a carry-in of 483.8 million pounds on Aug. 1. Combined with more than 2.29 billion pounds of new-crop marketable supply, total available supply reached about 2.8 billion pounds. Computed inventory at the end of November totaled 1.80 billion pounds, down from 1.89 billion pounds at the same point last year. The report lists a forecasted carryout of 625 million pounds, helping keep product available to buyers while allowing the industry to continue working through surplus.

Shipments

Total shipments for the crop year through November reached 824.8 million pounds, a 9.5% decline from last year:

• Domestic shipments: 193.5 million pounds, down 19%
• Export shipments: 631.3 million pounds, down 6%

Commitments totaled 611.8 million pounds. Uncommitted inventory stood at 1.26 billion pounds.

Quality and receipts

Receipts reached more than 2.18 billion pounds by Nov. 30. Major varieties made up nearly all reported receipts, with inedibles averaging 2.55% across the industry. Nonpareil remained the leading variety, followed by Independence and Monterey.

Takeaways

While shipments continue to lag, particularly in the domestic market, the pace of receipts and a moderated carryout suggest a stable supply pipeline. Buyers continue to have access to product, and the industry is making incremental progress in managing inventory. How the balance between shipments and supply evolves through winter will remain a key factor as the market moves into the second half of the crop year.