Dec 3, 2025U.S. tree nut growers navigate global growth, shifting demand
The global tree-nut market is expanding, and U.S. growers face both opportunity and uncertainty. The latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report shows record and near-record production in almonds, walnuts and pistachios, while shifts in global demand highlight the need for careful market strategy.
Almonds near record levels
Global almond production in 2025/26 is forecast at 1.777 million metric tons, a roughly 10% increase over the previous year. The U.S. accounts for 1.361 million metric tons of that total. Mild spring temperatures and favorable rainfall contributed to higher yields.
Global almond exports are expected to rise about 3%, led by U.S. shipments projected at 925,000 metric tons. Chinese imports of U.S. almonds are forecast to drop nearly 25% to about 100,000 tons, reflecting slower demand in that market.
Walnuts rebound
Global walnut output is forecast to climb about 3%, with the U.S. contributing 644,000 tons, up nearly 100,000 tons from the previous year. Increased nut-per-tree yields and favorable growing conditions supported the gain. Walnut exports are also projected to rise, with significant shipments to India, Turkey and the European Union.
Pistachios show strong early signs
Global pistachio production reached a record 1.2 million tons (inshell basis) in 2024/25, led by strong harvests in Turkey, Iran and Syria. Exports climbed to 650,000 tons. U.S. shipments fell nearly 20% to roughly 350,000 tons, reflecting an “off-year” in the alternate-bearing cycle.
Despite that drop, early indications for the 2025/26 season suggest a return to “on-year” production in the U.S., as increased bearing acreage and favorable conditions point to a likely larger crop.
Market considerations
The report highlights several trends relevant to U.S. growers:
- Global demand is shifting. China’s reduced almond imports and growing markets in India and the EU underscore the need for diversified export channels.
- Production swings affect pricing. Alternate-bearing crops like pistachios can create supply variability, influencing market prices.
- Resource and sustainability challenges remain. Water availability, climate variability, and orchard health continue to shape growers’ operational decisions.
For U.S. tree nut producers, the combination of strong yields and changing global demand suggests both opportunity and the need for strategic planning. Monitoring international trade trends, crop cycles and domestic conditions will be critical as the 2025/26 season unfolds.
