2026 State of the Tree Nut Industry Report

The U.S. tree nut industry has entered 2026 supported by the production, export and market realities that defined 2025. Across almonds, pistachios, walnuts, pecans and hazelnuts, growers delivered large crops — in some cases record-setting volumes — according to USDA and industry data. Strong supply, however, did not always translate into stronger returns.

Markets, pricing and trade conditions played a larger role in shaping outcomes than acreage or yield alone. Success in the year ahead will depend less on production capacity and more on how effectively supply is managed, marketed and aligned with global demand.

Almonds: strong supply, focused strategy

California’s 2025 almond crop reached an estimated 3.0 billion meat pounds, according to USDA data. The increase was driven primarily by higher yields rather than expanded acreage. Almonds remained the state’s top crop by value, generating $2.6 billion in crop value and continuing to anchor central California agriculture, based on county agricultural commissioner reports.

Exports remained essential to market balance. Shipments to the E.U. and India held steady during the year, while demand from China softened, reinforcing the importance of diversified export markets.

During the State of the Industry session at December’s Almond Conference, Almond Board of California CEO Clarice Turner emphasized the industry’s long-term demand strategy.

“We remain focused on growing demand for California almonds, both domestically and globally, with new products, new markets, new innovations and new partnerships, as well as equipping growers with practical tools and resources,” Turner said.

With the 2026 growing season approaching, abundant supply will continue to influence pricing and carryout levels. Market diversification and disciplined inventory management remain central to protecting grower returns.

Pistachios: record crop, measured pace

The 2025-26 U.S. pistachio crop reached a new high, supported by favorable yields and expanded bearing acreage, according to USDA and industry estimates. Early shipments were up 9% compared with the previous season, according to American Pistachio Growers data, providing early momentum as the marketing year began.

While alternate bearing limited some production potential, global pistachio output also reached historic levels, placing added importance on timing, quality and pacing shipments.

Early shipment activity points to solid demand, but growers preparing for the 2026 season will need to manage supply carefully to maintain balance in both domestic and export markets.

Walnuts: rebound strengthens market position

California walnut production rebounded in 2025, with USDA forecasting a crop of 710,000 tons, an 18% increase from the previous season. The estimate reflects improved orchard performance and aligns with industry expectations following a year of tighter supplies.

In comments provided to National Nut Grower in September, Robert Verloop, executive director and CEO of the California Walnut Board and Commission, said, “Combined with virtually being sold out of the 2024 crop, the industry is well positioned to start shipping new-harvest California walnuts immediately, providing seller and buyer confidence and stable markets.”

Early in 2026, walnuts appear positioned for improved market stability. Continued attention to supply flow and export relationships will be key to maintaining that balance.

Pecans: regional variability shapes outlook

The 2025 pecan crop reflected significant regional variation across the U.S., according to the American Pecan Council’s 2025 Crop Evaluation. Weather and orchard conditions influenced yields in Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and the New Mexico-Arizona region.

Texas growers anticipated production in the range of 28 million to 32 million pounds, while Georgia reported an average overall crop across an estimated 180,000 to 190,000 acres of commercial production. Disease pressure and localized drought affected some orchards, though overall nut quality and sizing were generally favorable.

Looking ahead to the 2026 growing season, demand remains steady, but returns will continue to be shaped by regional supply levels, carryover inventory and export performance.

Hazelnuts: acreage growth drives supply

U.S. hazelnut production, concentrated in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, continued its upward trajectory in 2025. Production is projected at approximately 116,000 tons, up about 20% from the previous year, reflecting higher yields and continued acreage coming into production.

Commercial hazelnut acreage has expanded rapidly over the past decade, growing from roughly 20,000 to 29,000 acres to an estimated 88,000 acres by 2024. Much of that acreage is now entering full production.

Exports have increased alongside supply. Shelled hazelnut exports exceeded 54 million pounds during the 2024-25 marketing year, roughly 20% higher than the previous season, according to USDA trade data.

As preparations begin for the 2026 season, sustained growth will depend on continued alignment among production, processing and export markets.

Markets, trade and the path ahead

Trade conditions remained a defining factor for grower returns in 2025. Global competition and trade disputes continued to influence pricing and export flows, underscoring the importance of market diversification.

USDA investments aimed at expanding specialty crop trade provide additional tools for accessing emerging markets. Pricing outcomes across tree nut crops were uneven, reflecting abundant supply and variable demand.

The data from 2025 makes one point clear: Production strength alone is not enough. Growers preparing for the 2026 season will need to balance output with disciplined inventory management, careful cost control and a clear understanding of market signals. Orchard efficiency, harvest execution and export alignment will play an increasingly important role in determining profitability in the year ahead.