Shipments down, commitments soften as 2025–26 almond crop enters early season

The Almond Board of California’s September 2025 position report shows that the new marketing year is off to a slower start.

Through September 30, total shipments reached 355 million pounds, down 7% from the same period last year. Domestic shipments fell 17% to 97.9 million pounds, while exports slipped 2.6% to 257.1 million pounds. Total supply is down 4%, at 1.52 billion pounds, and the forecasted carryout stands at 625 million pounds.

According to the ABC position report, crop receipts through the end of September totaled 992 million pounds, about 4% lower than a year ago. Despite the dip, kernel weights remain steady across major varieties, and overall quality indicators are positive, with inedible ratios averaging just 2.4%.

Domestic demand remains subdued following a weak August, when shipments declined nearly 22%. September’s domestic total of 55.9 million pounds represents an additional 11.5% decline from last year, as ingredient and snack buyers continue to work through existing inventories. Handlers also point to uneven retail demand and delayed contracting as factors contributing to the slower start.

Almond exports show regional strength

Exports, which accounted for 72% of total shipments, continue to show relative resilience. Southeast Asia led early-season gains with shipments up 59%, driven largely by Vietnam’s strong processing and re-export activity.

Other regions told a more mixed story. India’s imports dropped 39% amid heavy inventories, while Western Europe rose 24%, led by Spain (+42%) and Italy (+9%). The United Arab Emirates climbed 30%, offsetting softer movement in Turkey and Jordan. By contrast, shipments to China and Hong Kong plunged 78%, reflecting both weaker demand and increased global competition.

Handler commitments and inventory trends

Handler commitments are notably softer year over year, with total sold-but-undelivered volumes down nearly 18%. Domestic commitments are off 12.6%, and export commitments down 20.1%, signaling continued buyer caution. The computed industry inventory stands at 1.1 billion pounds, about 3% lower than last year, while uncommitted inventory has increased 18% as the new crop makes its way to market.

The Nonpareil variety continues to dominate receipts, representing 56% of total volume, followed by Independence (22%), Monterey (5%), and Butte/Padre (3%). Inedibles remain low across most varieties, averaging 2.39%, with Independence (1.99%) and Monterey (3.47%) maintaining particularly strong quality profiles.

Regionally, southern counties — led by Fresno, Kern and Madera — accounted for nearly half of total receipts (48%), while the central region contributed 32% and the northern region about 19%.

With shipments lagging and commitments easing, the industry is looking to the coming months for signs of momentum. Early harvest reports suggest good quality and efficiency statewide, but global economic headwinds, currency fluctuations and shifting trade dynamics may influence buying behavior as the 2025–26 season unfolds.