Sep 13, 2024Nut exports increase in shadow of U.S. ag export deficit
Nuts are helping balance losses in other ag export sectors in the expanding overall U.S. agricultural trade deficit.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers show how the tree nut sector as well as other fruits and vegetables are gaining traction in world trade and are predicted to hit record levels.
The report, released in late August, forecasts U.S. FY 2025 agricultural exports at $169.5 billion and imports at $212 billion.
For FY 2024, ag exports are predicted at $173.5 billion, up $3 billion from the May projection, largely due to higher horticultural and grain exports.
In 2025, horticultural product exports are expected for a record $41.5 billion, up $1.2 billion from 2024.
Whole and processed tree nuts are estimated $400 million higher to $9.9 billion on steady unit values and stronger Europe and Asia demand.
Japan and South Korea exports fell following weaker corn prices and lower beef volumes, but were partially offset by strong demand for fresh fruits, food preparations and pork.
Hong Kong’s forecast was unchanged following strong tree nut demand expected to offset lower beef sales.
India’s export forecast increased while lower cotton export values to Pakistan kept South Asia’s track unchanged, balanced by tree nut and apple demand.
EU exports remain unchanged, despite lower soybean value, offset by robust tree nut and other horticultural product demand.
Declining overall U.S. exports, including lower corn prices and a reduced Saudi Arabia outlook, helped depress Middle East U.S. ag product demand. Turkey exports are unchanged, as higher tree nut sales are expected to counter reduced cotton export value.
In the Western Hemisphere, where Mexico and Canada are the largest U.S. ag trade partners, higher prospects for horticultural products balance out lower exports of beef.
FY 2025 agricultural imports are estimated to be $8 billion higher than previous estimates, following rising imports of horticultural as well as sugar and tropical products, according to the report.
