U.S.-China trade conflict cuts California nut exports, researchers say

California’s agricultural exports to China fell sharply in 2025, with tree nuts among the hardest hit, according to a new study from the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.

Researchers Colin Carter, professor emeritus, UC Davis; Sandro Steinbach, professor of agribusiness and applied economics, North Dakota State University; and Yasin Yildirim found that the top 13 California commodities shipped to China dropped from an average annual value of $1.55 billion in 2024 to $554 million in 2025, a 64% decline in a single year.

The study highlights the impact on the state’s nut industry. Pistachio exports to China fell about $478 million, while almond exports dropped roughly $228 million. In terms of volume, almond shipments fell 77% and pistachio shipments declined 84%. Economists described the reductions as trade diversion, in which tariffs shift demand to competing suppliers.

“Long-term trade relationships are fragile,” Steinbach said. “Trade policy shifts can easily destroy more than they protect.”

China became one of California agriculture’s fastest-growing export markets after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. But trade tensions in 2018-19, followed by U.S. tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in 2025 and retaliatory Chinese tariffs, disrupted the market.

Counties with large agricultural sectors saw some of the biggest estimated losses, including $246 million in Fresno County and $238 million in Kern County. The study notes that declines in exports affect not only growers but also processors, trucking companies, warehouses and port facilities that support agricultural shipments.

Carter emphasized the long-term challenges.

“Rebuilding lost trust and market share will take years, if not decades, and would likely require hundreds of millions of dollars in market development efforts,” he said.

The research underscores how quickly changes in trade policy can affect California farmers who depend on global markets for crops like almonds, pistachios, cotton and dairy. Economists warn that even temporary exclusions from major markets can have lasting economic effects, as competitors solidify relationships with international buyers.