USDA reports lower bearing acreage in 2026 California almond forecast

California almond production for 2026 is forecast at 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis, down 1% from the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Bearing acreage is projected at 1.39 million acres, also down 1% from 2025. Average yield is forecast at 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from last season.

The May 1 forecast was based on a subjective survey of about 500 almond growers conducted April 21 to May 6. NASS said the survey used a stratified random sample grouped by operation size to ensure proportional representation across the industry. Growers reported total acreage, bearing acreage and expected 2026 production through mail, online or phone responses.

The Almond Board of California said the 2026 Subjective Almond Forecast continues to use the same survey procedures as previous years but is now published only within USDA’s national Crop Production report rather than in a separate California-specific report.

Bryce Spycher, senior manager of marketing order services for the Almond Board of California, said state-level almond data will continue to be available through national NASS releases and the agency’s Quick Stats database.

NASS included almond production estimates in its May 2026 Crop Production report released May 12.

Blue Diamond Growers agrees

Blue Diamond Growers estimates California’s 2026 almond crop will total about 2.69 billion pounds, with production expected to range from 2.675 billion to 2.72 billion pounds based on current orchard conditions and grower data.

Learn more about the Blue Diamond Growers projection here.

The cooperative said the forecast reflects orchard comparisons, grower surveys, field observations across more than 12,000 miles of orchards and acreage trend data collected throughout California’s almond-producing regions. Blue Diamond represents nearly 3,000 growers statewide.

Meridian Growers weighs in

Meridian Growers noted that the USDA Subjective Estimate of 2.70 billion pounds closely matched the three pre-report industry estimates, signaling a generally stable supply outlook. Both acreage and yield were essentially unchanged year-over-year, which the market interpreted as neutral to slightly supportive.

The ABC April shipment report showed mixed demand trends. Total April shipments declined 8.8% year-over-year, driven mainly by weaker domestic demand and lower exports compared with the same month last year. Despite the softer April performance, year-to-date exports remain 1.3% above last season and continue to anchor the market, representing 78% of total shipments.

Regional demand trends were uneven. Stronger demand persisted in Europe, Southeast Asia, Turkey, and Morocco, while China/Hong Kong and Northeast Asia remained weaker. India continued purchasing significant volumes, although still below last year’s pace.

Overall, Meridian Growers said domestic demand continues to pressure the market, but steady export activity is providing underlying support as the industry approaches the final quarter of the crop year.