Aug 9, 2023INDFC report: slightly smaller U.S. almond production
The California almond industry is in a favorable position to boost shipments and draw down a carryover. That is among the highlights from the latest International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INDFC) Almonds Global Statistical Review, which also reports the U.S. is forecast to slightly smaller almond production.
The INDFC forecasts the U.S. will produce 1.49 million metric tons of almonds for 2023-24, down from 1.52 million metric tons produce in 2022-23.
Report highlights:
USA
On July 12, the USDA NASS released its 2023 California almond objective forecast at 2.6 billion pounds (1.18 million metric tons), up 4% from May’s subjective forecast and 1% above last season’s crop. If reflecting a 2% loss and exempt, the 2023/24 crop is forecasted at 2.55 B lbs. (1.16 M MT).
As discussed during the INC Congress in London in May, after the crop year 2020/21 high of 3.11 billion pounds (1.4 M MT), the forecast for the 2023/24 season is anticipated to be the second shorter crop year in a row, which is starting to ease some of the previous oversupply the Californian industry went through over the last few years. California bearing acres have been steadily growing over the last decade, but have started flattening out over the last couple of years. Although above-average snowpack and rainfall have secured water supply for this year, water continues to limit new acres being planted.
As per the Almond Board of California Position Reports, total shipments year-to-date started off slow this season and it took until about mid-year for some of the export markets to start to pick up, with record numbers in January (+2.63% from 2021/22), February (+5.51%) and March (+6.85%). April and May YTD shipments were also up from 2021/22 by 3.49% and 0.25%, respectively, while June YTD total shipments of 2.38 billion pounds (1.08 M MT) saw a decrease of 3.51%. The initial ABC total shipment projection adds up to 2.78 B lbs. (1.26 M MT).
As COVID restrictions eased up in China, demand improved and was up by 17% YTD through June 2023 vs. 2021/22. The Middle East was a very important market this season (11% up), fueled by the favorable pricing reaching consumers. Europe was 10% off from last year’s number. The US market continued to lag and it remained to be seen if shipments would end up flat or slightly below last year.
All in all, the crop expected for the incoming season, combined with very strong consumption as well as a shorter Australian crop, puts the California almond industry in a favorable position to increase shipments and pull the carry-out into the 300-500 million pounds (136,000-227,000 MT) range, which is very supportive for pricing.
Read the full report here.
