Feb 26, 2025USDA forecasts growth in tree nut production through 2034
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest agricultural projection for U.S. agricultural trade and production through 2034, showing steady growth for tree nuts.
Tree nuts, alongside fruits and vegetables, are projected to reach a combined farm value of $68.8 billion by 2034, up from $56.5 billion in 2023. The USDA estimates that U.S. fruit and tree nut production will maintain a volume of about 50 billion pounds through the period. By 2034, the value of tree nut and fruit production will rise to $35.5 billion, up from $28.8 billion in 2023.
Total U.S. tree nut production, including almonds, walnuts, hazelnuts, pecans, pistachios, and macadamia nuts, is expected to range between 7 billion and 7.6 billion pounds from 2023 to 2034. The value of tree nut production is projected to increase from $8.2 billion in 2023 to $9.8 billion in 2034.
In the short term, low output prices and high input costs are expected to shrink producers’ margins, leading to slight decreases in bearing acres for almonds and walnuts. However, long-term population growth is anticipated to increase global demand for tree nuts, putting upward pressure on prices and resulting in higher bearing acreage over the projection period.
The report anticipates lower expected average yields for almonds and walnuts, along with alternate bearing yields for pistachios. These factors will influence annual tree nut production during the baseline period.
Despite challenges, U.S. tree nut production is expected to remain strong. The increase in value for tree nuts reflects growing global demand and U.S. producers’ ability to meet that demand, the report notes. The key findings in the USDA report align with data highlighted in National Nut Grower’s 2025 State of the Industry Survey Report.
Overall, the production of tree nuts is projected to see a gradual increase in value, driven by rising demand and the expansion of acreage despite challenges in yield fluctuations.
