Jul 15, 2025California almond crop forecast rises to 3 billion pounds
California almond growers can expect a robust harvest in 2025, with the USDA forecasting total production to reach 3.00 billion meat pounds.
The July Objective Measurement Report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) marks a 10% increase over last year’s final crop and a 7% boost from the agency’s earlier, subjective estimate in May.
The estimate is based on 1.39 million bearing acres, up slightly from 2024. Nonpareil, the state’s leading variety, accounts for 1.20 billion pounds of the total, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase.
Weather during bloom was mixed. February brought storms that disrupted bee activity and slowed blossom development, but March conditions improved with warm, dry days that allowed the crop to progress. A mild spring with well-timed rain contributed to healthy nut development and helped limit heat stress as summer began. Pest and disease pressure remained low, and harvest is expected to begin on schedule.
“The crop benefited from favorable conditions after a rough start to bloom,” said the report. “Mild temperatures and timely precipitation supported nut growth.”
Nut set per tree averaged 4,364, a 7% increase from 2024. Nonpareil trees showed a nut set of 4,526, up 9% from the previous year. Despite the higher counts, kernel weights were slightly lower. Across all varieties, average kernel weight was 1.60 grams, down 0.6% from 2024. Nonpareil kernel weights also dipped 2% to 1.60 grams.
Overall nut quality remains high. Of the nuts sized in the survey, 98.9% were classified as sound.
NASS conducted the Objective Measurement Survey from May 24 to June 28, sampling 1,892 trees in 946 orchards across key almond-producing counties. Trees were selected and evaluated using a statistically randomized method to ensure accuracy.
This year’s strong forecast could ease some of the pressure growers have faced in recent years amid lower prices, water challenges and increasing production costs. Still, the agency notes that final production may vary. The 80% confidence interval for the forecast ranges from 2.61 to 3.39 billion pounds.
The Objective Measurement Report is funded by the Almond Board of California and forms part of USDA’s official crop forecasting program. A final report will be released later in the season.
