Nov 17, 2025Almond exports boost shipments as domestic demand lags
For the third month of the 2025 crop year, California almond industry shipments reached 249.2 million pounds, a 26 % increase from September but still 3.6 % below the same period a year ago, according to the latest Blue Diamond Growers Market Report.
Much of the growth came from strong export performance:
- Exports rose to 201 million pounds, up 36 % month‑on‑month and 5.2 % year‑on‑year.
- Domestic shipments, by contrast, fell to 48.2 million pounds, down 2.7 % from last month and down 28.5 % from October 2024.
Regional snapshots from the report
India
October shipments totaled 28.3 million pounds, nearly flat versus September but down 4 % versus the prior year. Year‑to‑date shipments to India sit at 72.8 million pounds versus 102.1 million a year earlier, a 29 % drop. The report notes India remains cautious at California origin pricing, with downstream effects on pricing sentiment.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam region
Shipments into China/Hong Kong plunged (down 73 % in October and down 75 % YTD), while exports to Vietnam surged. The broader region overall was slightly down (2 %) this month and down 11 % year‑on‑year. A recent 10 % tariff reduction in China may help boost next month’s activity.
Europe
Year‑to‑date shipments to Europe are up about 29 % versus last year; Western Europe alone is up 31%. Buyers are selective and value‑focused, but the gains show demand is absorbing a meaningful share of this year’s crop.
Middle East
October shipments hit 47.2 million pounds, down 17.4 % month‑on‑month and down 9.6 % year‑on‑year. While volume growth trails Europe, demand for premium grades and larger sizes remains strong.
Commitments and inventory
Total commitments (sales ahead of delivery) currently stand at 561.5 million pounds, 16.7 % less than the same time last year. Of that, new sales this month amounted to 261.8 million pounds (domestic add‑ons of 62.5 million; export additions of 199.3 million). Uncommitted inventory sits at 982.2 million pounds (versus 997.1 million last year).
Crop update
Crop receipts through October reached 1.7 million pounds, a 7.9 % decline from the prior year, attributed to lower Nonpareil yields and turnout (kernel‑weight share). Some field harvest delays due to recent storms shifted emphasis to field deliveries rather than running stockpiles; reject levels in later‑harvesting varieties are higher though still below 2023‑24 levels.
Market outlook
The report characterizes the current market tone as firming. With a tighter supply than last year and resilient export demand, the trajectory into Q4 and early 2026 appears stable to bullish, especially if India and other key markets accelerate coverage.
What growers should watch
- The timing and scale of Indian purchases remain key price drivers as the market moves into holiday seasons and early‑year buying cycles.
- Domestic demand remains soft, with twelve consecutive months of weaker volumes. This continues to place pressure on domestic pricing and commitment levels.
- With uncommitted inventory slightly down and commitments off significantly year‑on‑year, the balance of supply/demand will be critical for pricing dynamics into 2026.
- Growth in exports to Europe and Southeast Asia is a bright spot; premium‑grade demand in the Middle East and large size interest globally may provide upside.
For nut growers, handlers and processors, the takeaway is clear: while domestic demand is sluggish, California almonds remain competitive on the global stage, and supply fundamentals suggest disciplined purchasing may help position operations for value creation as 2026 approaches.
