Oct 1, 2025American Pecan Council releases 2025 crop evaluation
The American Pecan Council has released its 2025 crop evaluation, providing an early look at growing conditions, regional challenges and production potential across major U.S. pecan-producing areas.
The annual evaluation is compiled by extension specialists from land-grant universities and is designed to give growers, shellers and industry stakeholders a region-by-region snapshot of the season. The report also serves as groundwork for a statistical crop prediction model under development at New Mexico State University.
The first nationwide pecan crop estimate using the model is expected in March 2026, followed by a western U.S. forecast in September 2026. Future versions are expected to expand to eastern production regions.
Weather variability defines the 2025 season
According to the council’s evaluation, the 2025 growing season was marked by significant weather variability. Early-season conditions were generally favorable in many areas, but later challenges included excessive rainfall, drought stress, high temperatures, wind events and localized freezes.
In the Southeast, prolonged wet and humid conditions increased disease pressure, while western production regions faced persistent heat and water limitations. These contrasting conditions contributed to uneven crop development across the country.
Regional highlights
Texas and West Texas
El Paso County growers are expecting a crop similar to 2024 despite ongoing drought and water availability concerns. Limited Rio Grande allocations have pushed many producers to rely more heavily on saline groundwater, requiring increased salinity management. Average pecan prices have declined to about $1.77 per pound, influencing marketing decisions as growers weigh storage options against rising input costs.
Oklahoma
Above-average spring rainfall delayed fungicide applications and contributed to pecan scab pressure. Orchards that were able to maintain spray programs performed better, though nut drop was reported in some areas. The Tri-State Pecan Conference estimated a potential crop of 18 million pounds, but final harvested totals are expected to be lower due to disease pressure and soft native pecan prices.
Georgia
Georgia’s crop is trending near average, with notable variation by orchard age and variety. Older trees, particularly Stuart varieties, produced lighter yields, while newer plantings helped offset declines. Pecan scab was reported on Pawnee trees, and black aphid pressure increased later in the season. Timely rainfall early in kernel fill improved soil moisture, followed by dry conditions that supported nut development.
New Mexico and Arizona
Growers in New Mexico and Arizona reported a solid overall crop. Spring windstorms caused minimal damage, and early insect pressure was relatively light. Some nut drop occurred as trees adjusted crop loads, particularly in mature orchards, while younger Arizona orchards showed signs of alternate bearing. Summer monsoon rains helped reduce water stress and support kernel fill.
Building toward data-driven forecasting
The American Pecan Council said the 2025 evaluation highlights both the diversity of growing conditions and the importance of combining field observations with predictive tools. As the industry moves toward more data-driven forecasting, future crop models are expected to help growers and industry partners better anticipate supply trends and manage risk.
